From fighter pilot to K-line master

"Now, the Wall Street financial turmoil is raging, which is a very time for investors, so that the government intervenes in the capital market. My only suggestion is to meet such a gloomy moment, first to busy your own things, to do is wait and see. Now it's not time to guess the future. In fact, investment never talks about the future. Don't worry about it! The market is better at dealing with the crisis than the advice you see in the media or elsewhere“ Gregory Morris, a famous international investment master and K-line practical war master, wrote a blog on September 30, 2008, recording the violent and tragic September of Wall Street with a calm and calm mind.
Through this calm and calm, people seem to see him again - a pilot who once drove a fighter jet gallops the blue sky, calmly dissolves all kinds of unexpected dangers, and draws a beautiful arc in the vast sky!
Gregory Morris, an excellent pilot, has drawn a wonderful life in the financial market - another very different world: spending 35 years in market technology analysis and financial software development, and finally becoming the authority of candle chart analysis method recognized globally. From pilot to K-line master, Morris wrote a wonderful legend with his life.
30 years of love with blue sky
Morris was born in Texas, USA in 1948. Graduated from the University of Texas in Austin in 1971, majoring in Aeroengine technology. After graduation, Morris was admitted to the talented American Navy flight training school because of his growing complex of flying.
In this land where he sees it as a dream country, Morris has ambitious goals for his first life: he is a sleepless, hardworking student and has been ranked first in flight training. In 1975, after rigorous professional study and training, Morris graduated with excellent achievements and finally realized his dream. He started his first love career in life - driving fighter to the sky and becoming the master of the blue sky!
Morris is fascinated by the feeling of flying a fighter, "flying is my first love, and it feels great in the sky!" In 1978, Morris said goodbye to the fighter, "it would take me to leave the plane. I will fly until the day I can't fly!" Morris then worked for Delta Airlines for 26 years until he became a man of brilliant hair from a young man with a brilliant head. From 1975 to 2004, Morris had a close relationship with the blue sky for nearly 30 years.
Different scenery found in the stock market
During his study at the University of Texas, Morris was gradually interested in the stock market after studying hard to realize the ideal of flying. In his view, the price of the stock changed as unpredictable as the clouds in the blue sky“ The market is so interesting. Why not try it“ For a while Morris kept asking himself the question. In 1972, Morris bought the first stock in his life, and he was glad that the price of the stock he bought kept rising; However, it was not long. In 1973, the world oil crisis broke out. The economic situation in the United States and even the world was terrible. The stock market became a disaster area. Many people lost their wealth overnight. Morris' stock market value had dropped 65% by 1974“ The stock market is so terrible, like a devil, devouring the weak investors“ Morris lamented that he felt powerless and desperate that he would almost give up the stock market.
However, the experience of driving the "Eagle" in danger never give up and resolve it gives Gregory Morris great strength to overcome the difficulties before him and stimulate his enthusiasm for exploration and conquest.
"In the candle" of the K-line master
The stock market is a wonderful world comparable to the sky in Morris' eyes. Although not his full-time, Morris' enthusiasm is no less than flying the blue sky, and his failure has made him start a new battle.
"Every Sunday morning," Morris recalled, "I use calculators and drawings to chart the average price of the stock. Apart from the 3-4 days of flight working hours in a week, I spend almost all my spare time analyzing the market with computers“ The effort and persistence have produced fruitful results. Morris not only uses the average to gain rich returns in his spare time in the stock market, but also writes these successful experiences into the book "the detailed interpretation of candle map". The book has become Morris' most famous masterpiece and has long been on the top of the list of best sellers in the United States. In the book, Morris uses computer to identify and count the performance of S & P 100 share and commodity CSI index in different K-line forms in history, and uses detailed data to distinguish which K-line forms have high success rate and which technical analysis indicators are most helpful to optimize the prediction function of K-line shape… For technology traders, this book is undoubtedly a treasure book of investment according to the map.
At the same time, Morris is also dedicated to the development of financial software. From 1982 to 1993, gomorris has long cooperated with famous n-squared computer software company, and produced more than 15 kinds of technical analysis and chart software products. His talent soon attracted the attention of marketarts, another famous software company, which Morris joined in 1993 and became the first person to develop Candlestick recognition software.
In 1999, Morris ushered in another peak of his stock market career. He and three friends started Murphy Morris capital management company. In 2004, the company was incorporated into pmfm fund management company, and Maurice, 56, personally took the lead in the team and was the manager. After 30 years waiting, Morris began to take management funds as his own professional work. Morris remained calm when he accepted a special interview with BusinessWeek in July: "I don't feel sorry at all, because it is the best condition for things to develop naturally!"
Appendix gligory Morris: the essence of 35 years of investment
The Fifth China (International) asset management conference was unveiled in Hangzhou on July 6. The theme of the conference is "important impact of asset management on real economy". It is jointly hosted by Xinhua News Agency zhongdesa Holdings Co., Ltd., China Asset Management Research Institute and futures daily, and the Oriental wealth network is broadcast in full picture and text.
Gregory Morris, a famous fund manager of the United States, attended the conference and delivered a keynote speech. The following is a transcript of the speech.
Gregory Morris: Thank you! Last April, I was in the United States with Larry. We talked about the Fifth China (International) asset management conference that Mr. Yang is going to hold here. Thank you very much for inviting me to come. I thought yesterday I was the only foreigner.
I used to study aerospace, and then I stepped into the financial sector. Some people said that investors were rational, but actually not. Some said the market was effective, but I think the market is effective in the short term, but it is not a long-term trend. In addition, some people say that market returns are distributed normally, and researchers know that there is no standard for this. In modern finance, many people tell me that risk is volatile, and it is determined by standard variance. Some people say that standard variance is a number of years, but I don't think so. Volatility is up and down, and I think the downward trend is a risk. Let me take an example. Take the Dow Jones index as an example. You can see that this is zero, that is -20, -30, -50. The risk is to lose our assets. The market has gone down for a long time. In 1972, the market fell by 40%, and it hasn't recovered until 1982. We can not only see the frequency of the fluctuation, but also the time span of the fluctuation. It took investors ten years to turn the price. If the drop rate is more than 20%, we call it bear market. Many years ago, we have the first bear market. We use the US market for example, because the U. There was a bear market in the depression of the 1920s. It was not only at that time, but also in the near future. The market fell 20% to 30%, and investors would not have to turn the books until four years later. If you invest in stocks or securities, in these years, it will take you years to turn the price.
This picture, if I let you buy index stocks, we can see that small cap stocks are up 11.9 percent, big cap stocks are up 9.8 percent, and that's almost right. But there is a question, can you wait 85 years? No, most people retire after 20 to 25 years, and there are many 20 to 30 years in 85 years when the stock market is not going well. This is a histogram of ten-year yields, and we have been calculating the rate of return every decade from 1900 to 1909, 1909 to 1919. We mentioned 20 percent of the data above, which means 43 percent of companies have a return of less than 8 percent, while 22 percent have an 8-12 percent return.
Let's analyze the market. The most popular analysis method is basic analysis. We can see that there are 90% of the total price factors used in most basic plane analysis. The price is the price of a certain stock. When analyzing the market, it is not only the trend of dividend, but also the trend of price. We have high and new low, which are all distribution of prices. We also do market trend analysis, we have analysis of the price of large and small cap stocks. There are also relative strength and weakness analysis, in fact, to analyze the market width. I have been analyzing the laws of the market. I want to explain the market rules, the demand and supply of market development. If you are the buyer of stocks, you are the demander, and the other is the supplier. If you buy a stock, you must want to sell it to others after the stock rises, then you don't know others when you buy it, and I don't know who is selling to you, I don't know why I want to sell you, but I know that someone is selling you. If you say a certain stock is going to rise in TV, you will follow. If you say that many people are selling this stock on TV, then many people will follow. You buy stocks from others, you don't know where they are bought, you don't know how your stocks are managed, and the total value you only care about prices, which is why we analyze the stock price. Price can let you know the supply of the market at a glance. Many people sell stocks at a certain price. Then they are based on the financial information in TV, which will affect people's investment concept, but you still need to make the judgment of market supply according to your own analysis.
Next, I ask you some questions. This is a graph. Is this a daily curve? Or a weekly curve? Or a 15 minute curve? Actually, you can't see. Is this a stock? Or futures and agreements? Or the number of stock index periods? You can't see. I don't show the date and price here. This is a daily stock trend chart. I didn't point out that it was a specific stock. We analyze the market to analyze these data. During this period, the company announced that there is 18% profit rate. Do you think the 18% profit rate is good or bad? You can't say it either. In the United States, we have the Federal Open Market Commission, which will issue some notifications, such as reaching a certain data, and they say it is positive or negative. I want to say that the stock analysis on these TV is actually rubbish, and they won't explain what the market will be like. When I am sure that there are two very good upward trends, I will be very happy to see such a curve, and its profit accounts for 65%. And I see two downward trends. Our investment team will try to avoid these bad downward trends. We decide to make the judgment of buying or selling, according to the market trend, So we use some technical analysis because we believe in this thing, and we can rely on it.
Do you have anyone who invests according to their own feelings and market sentiment? yes , we have. My master's degree studies the market sentiment of people. If someone can't manage their emotions, it can not be successful in the process of investment. Technical analysis can make our perception clearer. In addition, we will discipline ourselves and let ourselves self-discipline if we adopt technical analysis. I tell you a story. I have been dieting. One day I drove with my wife. Last summer, we stopped at the old gas station. I bought myself a sugar. My wife looked at me in surprise. "Why don't you discipline yourself?"“ No, no, because you don't know how much sugar I actually want to buy. ". Why do I tell you this story? I want to tell you that if you want to make a successful investment, you must be self disciplined. Self discipline is very important for people's life. In fact, this is the black and white relationship. You are either self-discipline or non self disciplined. You must be self disciplined for a while.
In fact, I don't think there is any basic analysis of the problem more than the market trend. I don't want to tell you how to invest in the market, because I think there are too many factors. I want to say that at any time, our customers entrust their money to us, and he must have such a psychological preparation. It is very important that you have profit or risk. Our investment model is equivalent to three corner stools, because the three corner stools are the most stable on the plane. We use the evidence weight method as the method. We go to the market width analysis and the market relative strength analysis to judge the market going up or down. We use this method to judge the basic trend of the market, and we also have a set of rules or guidelines to judge the market trend. We have very strict discipline throughout the investment process, and we are based on this model. Three legs are indispensable. We need to know how the market is going. We must understand the market rules, and then we make decisions and actions.

This picture may look a little scary. I want to explain it briefly. All the lines are all the weight of evidence. There are four colors. Green is the best trend. We can trade actively here. In fact, each column has its strict standards, when to buy and when to sell. For example, if we want to buy an ETF, if its trend is upward, we will buy it. This is the trend of standard Pu'er in the past 18 years. In the yellow and red parts, we adopt a defensive investment policy. In fact, I mean defensive investment in cash. You can judge whether the market trend is up or down according to the weight of evidence method. This is the trend chart of the recent period. Last week, it was down in red, not green, This is last week's chart. Of course, this is not a forecast. We never make a forecast. We are just looking at the current situation of the market. We are analyzing the market, and then react according to our analysis. We don't make any predictions. We can buy open-end fund stocks, futures and so on. We have strict stock selection criteria. As I said, we can only buy open-end stock funds with upward momentum index. We are going to buy stocks that are going up. We are not going to buy stocks that are cheap. We are going to buy stocks that are going up.
There are a lot of data in this chart. I just want to tell you that we have some aspects that we must see. There is also a standard called decisive standard, which can do more technical analysis on ETFs. We will analyze the bad stocks in our fund every morning, and then decide whether to sell them. We can stop the loss. We have our rules to determine the loss. If a stock is bad, according to our rules to determine the time and level of stop loss, we will hold a meeting to decide whether to stop loss. We don't predict the future. We never point out when the market will bottom or peak. We just grasp the trend of the market. We don't predict what the market will be like in a short period of time. Our rule is to seize most of the good times, so as to avoid the bad times in those markets.
Let's share with you the performance of our portfolio over the past 18 years. We can see that this is a small cap stock. There are 16 funds with more than 10% losses. In this figure, there are more than 20% losses. There are standard Pu'er 500, (English) 2000. The investment of our company has never been more than 20% losses. This is the time span. If the loss exceeds 10% in a certain time span, we should analyze not only the degree of loss, but also the time span. On this chart, there are 12 years in 2000, 12 years in 2000, and more than 10% in 2000. This is the chart ticket with the largest decline. Our company has only had more than 10% from the record high to the record low. I think we can do it. We need to look at the average decline of the market, analyze the average decline of the market at this time, and then make a judgment.
To sum up, we use evidence weight method to analyze various market factors. Our company's investment strategy is completely based on a series of rules. We are very objective and self disciplined. In the past 40 years, our portfolio has performed quite well. If we go to see a fund, We can see that the fund manager may tell us that the trend of the fund is very good, it has been running for 20 years, and so on. Our fund managers follow certain rules before making judgments.